I’m finally ready to share a big project I’ve been working on for months. Try selecting a player from the drop down menu below. The visualization that appears shows the defensive impact a player has adjusting for all other defensive players and the offensive player who is actually shooting. Blue squares indicate that when the selected player is on the court, the probability that an offensive player will make his shot declines (so blue is good defense). Red squares indicate that when the selected player is on the court, the probability of any offensive player making his shot rises. Go ahead and take a second to play with the drop down menu. I’m not ready to rollout every player yet, but the Pacers, Bulls, and Grizzlies are all on there. After the jump, I explain the full methodology, and answer some questions that you’ll probably have after looking at the charts.
In keeping with the subject of my last post, I’ve slapped together a partial fix before I start working on a much bigger change in this whole endeavor. One way to deal with binning problems is just to smooth the data somehow. Here’s a picture of a histogram, for example, with both binned data and then a kernel density plot.