Followup: shot volume with Hibbert on and off court

A friend noted that in the graphs in my previous post, it is difficult to tell how shot volume changes with Hibbert on and off court. My initial goal was to have the same amount of paint on the on and off court graphs, so the volume of colored area could be compared directly. That would let us see, for example, if opposing teams take more shots in the paint when Hibbert sits.

Unfortunately, I can’t figure out a way to do this. The problem is that so much of the shot volume is near the basket (about 40% within 8 feet). This makes it difficult to represent shot volume proportionally, as the squares near the basket would have to be enormous. In the graphs on the previous post, I had to use a log scale to make the graphs visually interpretable.

Another possibility, however, is some kind of heat map. The heat maps below show shot locations of the opposing team with Hibbert on and off the court.

Hibbert on court

Hibbert on court heat

Hibbert off court

Hibbert on court heat

They don’t look very different! I had hoped to see something interesting here but the reality is that offenses just don’t seem to change their strategy much due to the addition of one player (at least in this case). All that really happens is that perimeter shot volume declines a little bit (with the exception of some 3pt areas) and interior shot volume increases a little bit. It’s difficult to see this on the map because the area around the basket is just a big red blotch. How big are these differences? When Hibbert is on-court, about 37.5% of opposing shots are taken within 8 feet of the basket. When Hibbert is off-court, this increases to 40.8%. Not a massive difference but nothing to sneeze at.

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